The All Progressives Congress (APC) is not learning from the tragedy that befell its arch-rival, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), shortly before the 2015 general elections, that drew the curtains on its 16 years of hegemony over the country.
Yet, as it is often said, those who refuse to learn from history always run the risk of repeating mistakes, and reaping more fatal consequences from their errors.
Can the party avert the prospect of self-liqudation and ultimate collapse ahead of 2023? How can the current leadership crisis be resolved? Will the platform survive the bickering, the coup and the betrayal?
The ruling party is locked in a war of attrition against itself, raising concern over its drift to decay, gradual slide into self-destruction and imminent systematic eclipse. The beginning of the current war was known. It was foretold by observers. But, the end cannot be predicted.
A cloud of uncertainty is hovering over APC. The party faces a perilous future. The puzzle is: will the party collapse under the watch of its national leader, President Muhammadu Buhari? Or will he swiftly rise to restore order into a state of pandemonium?
Some governors and other influential stalwarts are up in arms against the national chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, who they elected as successor to Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, two years ago.
The governors constitute the most powerful and influential bloc in the party. They want the national chairman out by all means and at all costs. Strangely, they cannot wait for the mid-term convention in the middle of the year or two years time when Oshiomhole may be seeking re-election as chairman.
Oshiomhole, a veteran of many wars, is not leaving anything to chances. He is firing salvos and returning the heat.
The rift has further compounded the challenge of reconciliation. Old quarrels have remained unresolved. New feuds are now taxing the platform to the brim. The achievement of power retention in last year’s election is being mismanaged. PDP leaders are maintaining a keen interest in the imbroglio in the ruling party so that they can profit from the logjam.
The former Edo State governor has been suspended by his Iyombo ward, and that has been the basis for his removal by a High Court. Although another High Court has temporarily come to his rescue, its order was ignored by the police, which initially denied him access to the party’s national secretariat in Abuja.
The embattled chairman has run to the Aso Villa for help. It is not certain where the President stands on the highly divisive and potentially destabilising issue. Although the Commander-In-Chief welcomed the chairman with his peculiar smiles, his foes are not sheating their swords. It appears they are gaining ground and spoiling for a show down.
However, those supporting Oshiomhole are also threatening fire and brimstone. They include four Southwest governors, four chapters in the Southsouth, five Southeast chapters, majority of state chairmen, the National Assembly caucus, four chapters in the Northwest, four chapters in the Northeast and three chapters in the Northcentral.
Oshiomhole’s supporters are warning against the dire consequences of his unceremonial removal. Should the anti-Oshiomhole forces have their way, the party will be engulfed in tension that will probably last till 2023 electioneering, which really, is the crux of the matter.
Many state chairmen are alerting the warring leaders to the prospect of disintegration. Similar crisis in the past led to mass exodus from the PDP. In fact, some confided that the party may be decimated, if reason does not prevail.
The crisis is not beyond expectation. Many had doubted that APC will be a political party that will stand the test of time. At its inception, it was akin to an amalgam of incompatible politicians looking for a vehicle to presidential power in a hurry. Almost five years after, it has not been ideologically fortified. Its structures appear formidable when there is temporary absence of conflict. But, at the national and state levels, the party has not been at peace. In fact, antagonistic factions in many crisis-ridden state chapters are working at cross-purpose. Now, its leadership is undergoing the pains and strains of disputation.
APC is confronted by the challenges of internal contradiction within itself. The ruling party suffers from the absence of two elements that are critical to its growth and survival. First, there is no party supremacy in APC. It may translate to the absence of a towering moral voice or an organ that can successfully whip erring members into line. The president is in a vantage position to fill this glaring gap. But, he appears limited by personal styles, which are beyond the comprehension of many people.
Many APC leaders are lords and unsubmissive. They do not defer to any party organ for moderation and restraint. Egocentricity and the pursuit of particularistic agenda at the expense of collective interest are the watchword. The fall out is the collapse of party discipline, which is the second factor.
Is the president not reluctant to play his role as party leader? Is the party caucus not dormant or in deep slumber? Are the founding fathere not helpless? Is there any cord binding the warriors? Is the health of the party a priority?
The ruling party has become the den of uncouth actors and trouble makers. Governors are not on the same page with ministers in some states. They are locked in supremacy battles. There is no cohesion. There is no harmony.
It is only in APC that stalwarts can support candidates of other parties against their party’s flag bearers during elections and there will be no sanction. The president may have even encouraged the unruly behaviour by asking party members to vote for him during the last presidential election while they vote for the candidates of their choice in other layers of elections.
It is only in APC that a national officer can unilaterally summon a meeting of the National Executive Committee (NEC) and National Working Committee (NWC) without following the rules and go scot free.
The APC-led Federal Government has been battling with insecurity. Success may still be far. It is battling with the economy, which is further nosediving. Coronavirus is threatening Nigeria and citizens are in panic. Now, the attention of the President is increasingly being diverted by a needless party squabble.
It may be because the president could not put his feet down. Although he had warned against kickstarting 2023 succession politics, after dispelling the rumour of an ambition of an illegal third term, his advice was ignored. Those for and against Oshiomhole claim to be loyal to the President, whose counsels they are always eager to brush aside for selfish ends.
Hell was let loose as the party was preparing for last year’s elections. Nine states-Oyo, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Imo, Zamfara, Adamawa, Kaduna and Rivers-were hot spots; made hotter by crises of governorship succession and parliamentary nominations.
The sins of the party chairman, according to those pushing for his ouster, are high handedness, lack of temperamence and refusal to dance to the whims and caprices of the APC Governors’Forum. But, according to commentators, some governors who are potential presidential aspirants and running mates are not comfortable with his continued stay as chairman because it may jeopardise their 2023 calculations.
At his Edo home front, there is also a fierce battle against Oshiomhole by Governor Goodwin Obaseki, who sees the national chairman as a major obstacle to his second term. The feeling is that Oshiomhole will be much influential on the governorship nomination, if he is allowed to remain in office.
As state party leaders, the governors were on the prowl in 2019, and they expected sympathy for their succession agenda from their former colleague, Oshiomhole, which was not forth coming. The chairman who refused yo be cowed by his former colleagues wanted to be seen as fair to other chieftains battling with the governors.
In Imo, former Governor Rochas Okorocha wanted to instal his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, as his successor. The coast was not clear. The governor brooked no opposition, but the agenda failed, owing to resistance by other blocs in the party. Although Nwosu borrowed an opposition party for the contest, he lost. Oshiomhole took the blame for standing by the party rules.
In Zamfara, former Governor Abdulaziz Yari and Senator Kabiru Marafa could not reconcile, following the outcome of their parallel party congreses. The party lost the state to the opposition. It is being said that APC lost ground under Oshiomhole.
Former Ogun State Governor Ibikunle Amosun, who was firmly in control of the Ogun structure was not disposed to a democratic primary, which his anointed governorship candidate, Adekunle Akinlade, would have won. He encouraged him to contest on the platform of APM. Therefore, the chairman is should shoved aside.
In Ondo State, certain party stalwarts also motivated aggrieved APC chieftains to run against APC on the platform of Action Alliance (AA), an opposition party. The blame was on the chairman.
The three governors were suspended. Although the suspension was lifted, the affected are seeking a pound of flesh.
There are court cases arising from the push for the chairman to abdicate. The outcome can go either way.
Few months ago, a plot to suddenly remove Oshiomhole was foiled by Governors Zulum of Borno and Gboyega Oyetola of Osun in Abuja. Can the current plot be foiled like the previous hang-up?
If Oshiomhole is shoved aside, will it halt the crisis? Will those backing him not fight back? Who replaces him? The forces asking him to resign are against the emergence of former Oyo State Governor Abiola Ajimobi as National Deputy Chairman (South) because, in the interim, he is likely to become the National Acting Chairman.
Will the position of chairman then, be taken to the North, where Yari is allegedly been positioned to take over, or be retained in the Southsouth, in consonance with the subsisting zoning formula?
If Oshiomhole survives, will the matter end there? Can he henceforth, sleep with his two eyes closed?
President Buhari was said to have asked the APC National Caucus to wade into the lingering crisis. Is his directive being implemented? Will the body make a difference? Can peace return to the ruling party?