The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are warming up for the Lagos East senatorial by-election. Who succeeds the late Senator Bayo Osinowo between Tokunbo Abiru and Babatunde Gbadamosi? Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines their chances at the poll.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are on the weighing scale in Lagos East Senatorial District. Their candidates for the senatorial by-elections, Tokunbo Abiru and Babatunde Gbadamosi, are set for the race.
Both are from Ikorodu. While Abiru is campaigning on the strength of his credentials, Gbadamosi is exploring multiple legal options to gain advantage.
The seat became vacant, following the demise of Senator Bayo Osinowo, who spent barely a year in the National Assembly.
The district is made up of five local government areas (LGAs) and 11 local council development areas (LCDAs).
On August 11, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) scheduled October 31 for the election. But, it was postponed due to the constraints created by the protest by youths against police brutality.
A new date has not been announced by the electoral agency. But, there are indications that the poll will hold before the end of the year.
According to INEC, 12 by-elections would be held nationwide. However, the Lagos East contest has, no doubt, attracted more attention.
Osinowo’s death re-ignited the old rivalry that had characterised Lagos politics in the last two decades. Like previous elections in the state, the by-election is a two-horse contest between the APC and its arch rival, the PDP.
Both parties seriously covert the vacant seat. APC leaders risk a bruised ego, if the ruling party is defeated by the opposition. The PDP wants to win to make a point and prepare the ground for 2023. But, the strategy of the opposition appears flawed.
APC has retained a formidable structure in Lagos East that cannot be easily uprooted. It is doubtful if the PDPcan match it for now.
Since the parties kicked off their campaigns in September, manh issues have come to the front burner, which analysts believe, would largely determine the outcome of the poll.
Some observers are speculating that the youth agitation for a better Nigeria would determine the outcome of the process. Others fear that the poll may be characterised by apathy due to electoral fatigue, fuelled by failed electoral promises in the past. But, these are still in the realm of conjecture.
What factors are likely to swing the pendulum of victory on poll day?
The proposed election will be about issues and personalities, the profile of candidates, and public acceptance.
The is an era of change. Of importance is the record of service of the candidates, which cannot be ignored by voters. It appears that the electorate are now clamouring for a new crop of political leaders with robust records of service and capacity to make meaningful change and add value to the polity. Putting this into perspective, an anti-graft advocate, Auwal Rafsanjani, said the clamour is intense due to the absence of accountable and transparent government in the country.
No fewer than 12 flag bearers are itching to succeed the deceased senator. But, only Abiru, formerGroup Managing Director of Polaris Bank Limited, and businessman Gbadamosi. Other candidates are as weak as their platforms.
Abiru is an economist and a chartered accountant with about 32-year experience in both public and private sectors. In 2013, he resigned as the Commissioner for Finance in Lagos State. As a member of the State Executive Council, he was reputed for raising N80 billion bond to develop strategic infrastructure in the state.
Later, Abiru was appointed as Executive Director in First Bank Plc, where he was entrusted with managing the institution’s corporate banking. In 2016, as revealed in Abiru’s records of service, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) appointed him as the Group Managing Director of Skye Bank Plc. He implemented the CBN’s transformation plan that pulled back the bank from the brink of collapse.
Under four years, Abiru rescued Skye Bank Plc from the abyss of its non-performing loans, a disturbing rating far above the regulatory standard. Also, Abiru supervise its metamorphosis to Polaris Bank. Abiru transformed the bank from liability to profitability, rounding up the 2019 financial year with a profit of N27.35 billion.
Gbadamosi finished from Government College, Ikorodu in 1985. Other documents revealed that the PDP candidate attended the Lagos State University (LASU) between 1986 and 1989. After working as mailman, train station assistant and cab driver in the United Kingdom for years, Gbadamosi returned to Nigeria. He set up Redbrick Homes International Limited, the developers of the iconic Amen Estate, Ibeju Lekki, where an ace actress, Funke Akindele, organised birthday bash for her husband in breach of COVID-19 regulations.
Abiru and Gbadamosi have released their manifestos, Abiru promised people-oriented representation within the statutory mandate of a senator. In this context, he pledged to promote bills and motions that would improve the quality of life; create enabling environment for businesses to thrive and provide fair opportunities for all Nigerians irrespective of where they come.
Abiru also promised to leverage the instruments of legislation and lawmaking to systematically empower youths; combat extreme poverty; improve ease of doing business; work with other senators to actualise special status for Lagos, as well as lobby federal and state governments to fully execute all uncompleted projects in Lagos East and promote financial inclusion across irrespective of the status of Nigerians.
Like Abiru, the PDP candidate promised quality representation, saying he would give the people of Lagos East the opportunity to aspire to bigger things. Unlike Abiru, Gbadamosi has not empirically spelt out his campaign agenda. Rather, he has sustained attacking the APC, describing it as an empty party.
The party structure will also determine the contest. Abiru was born to the family of progressives. His father, Justice Mudashiru Abiru, was a loyalist of the Premier of Western Region, Chief Obafemi Awolowo. In 1979, he was elected senator on the platform of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN).
Also, Abiru has been a longtime adherent of progressivism, which he inherited from his father. That perhaps might be a reason he has been supporting the Alliance for Democracy (AD), the defunct Action Congress (AC) and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Abiru’s progressive persuasion never changed, even after the ACN devolved into the APC in February 2013.
That perhaps explained why he emerged a consensus candidate on the platform of the APC on September 2. Even though the APC faces its own challenges amid the #EndSARS protest, the party still has its structure intact across the senatorial district, which would be an added advantage for Abiru in the election.
Gbadamosi, however, does not enjoy the same advantage. PDP had contested elections in the past with insignificant impact. It had won federal and state legislative elections in few constituencies, but had failed to sustain its victory due to internal crisis.
The way Gbadamosi emerged as PDP candidate six months after defecting from the ADP also generated crisis. While the Chairman of Lagos PDP, Adedeji Doherty, was opposed to Gbadamosi’s nomination, the party’s former Deputy National Chairman, Chief Olabode George, used his overriding influence to secure him the party ticket.
A gale of defections had hit the Lagos PDP. Many olitical gladiators, who could have deployed their structures in Gbadamosi’s support, have defected to the APC. They include a former Minister of Works, Senator Seye Ogunlewe; a former Nigerian High Commissioner to Ghana, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, and the immediate past Chairman of Lagos PDP, Mr. Moshood Salvador.
The contest has been a subject of multiple litigations. Gbadamosi claimed Abiru breached the Electoral Act for alleged double registration. He, also, claimed Abiru did not register in the Lagos East. He cited a letter Abiru addressed to the INEC, requesting for transfer of permanent voters card (PVC) from Carlton Gate Estate, Chevron Drive, Lekki to Oriwu Road, Ita Elewa, Ikorodu.
Legal minds said Gbadamosi’s claims are not consistent with constitutional provisions. Section 66 of the 1999 Constitution spells out conditions for a candidate’s disqualification. A candidate can only be disqualified, if he acquires the citizenship to a country other than Nigeria; is adjudged to be a lunatic or declared not to be of a sound mind; under a sentence of death; has been convicted of an offence involving dishonesty or he is a person employed in the public service of the federation or any state.
Abiru does not breach any of the conditions stated in the section 66 of the 1999 Constitution. Apart from the constitutional provision, however, a senior advocate argued that the allegation of double registration “is subject to judicial interpretation.” He said the intention of a candidate, who breached the provision, would first be determined whether he wanted to use the PVC for criminal purposes.
Also, after the intention of the candidate has been determined, a court of competent jurisdiction must make a definite pronouncement, whether he is guilty or not. Until a judicial pronouncement is made, the senior lawyer said the issue of double registration “remains a mere allegation.”
On September 29, the Media Director of the Gbadamosi Senatorial Campaign Council, Dr. Ademola Pearse, alleged that Skye Bank Plc collapsed under Abiru’s leadership. Gbadamosi said there had been two attempts on his life and that of members of his campaign team.
Reports showed that Skye Bank Plc did not collapse as Pearse claimed in a statement he signed. Rather, the CBN engaged Abiru on July 4, 2016 to rescue the bank at the time it recorded about 80 per cent non-performing loans far above the regulatory standard and other prudential and adequacy ratios of the defunct bank abysmally performed much below the thresholds of the apex banks.
Abiru managed the bank’s grievous challenges, which culminated in reduction of deposit loss, restoration of customer confidence and stabilisation of the bank within four years. Also, it settled many matured trade and bilateral obligations and restructured outstanding balances with the relevant institutions and counterparties.
The bank’s annual reports showed Abiru transformed Skye Bank to Polaris Bank and its narrative from pessimism to optimism, more aptly from liability to profitability. In its audited report, Polaris posted N27.35 billion profit after tax in the 2019 financial year.
Abiru, through his counsel, Kemi Pinheiro, has asked the Inspector-General of Police, Mohammed Adamu, to conduct “a detailed investigation into Gbadamosi’s allegations of murder and assassination to ascertain their veracity and the culpability of anyone involved in such actions.”
Abiru, as an accomplished economist and a chartered accountant, has been campaigning on the strength of his credentials and the values he intends to add, if elected. But, Gbadamosi, a real estate developer, has deviated from campaign issues. He is exploiting legal means to stop his opponent and get to office.