SUNDAY ABORISADE examines how the various security challenges facing Nigeria pose a great threat to the conduct of the 2023 general elections
It is definitely not an understatement to declare that the country is currently at war against itself, no thanks to bandits’ attacks in most parts of the country, particularly in the North-West; the farmer-herder crisis in the Middle Belt, South-East, and South-West; terrorism in the North-East; and agitations for secession.
Many Nigerians are afraid and apprehensive that the unabating insecurity in the land is a major factor that can prevent the conduct of the 2023 polls.
The Governor of Benue State, Samuel Ortom, after he escaped from being kidnapped from his farm last month, rushed to the Presidential Villa in Abuja on March 24 to meet with the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd), and told journalists after the meeting that the 2023 elections might not hold if insecurity in the country persisted.
The governor, who arrived at the Villa unaccompanied, thanked the President for condemning the attack on him on his farm but said that “there will be no 2023 elections in Nigeria if insecurity persists.”
The issue of national security has remained a talking point in present-day Nigeria and the pervasive atmosphere of uncertainty continues to take its negative toll on virtually all sectors.
Several prominent Nigerian leaders and security experts have been quoted in various media interviews in recent times to have expressed fears that violence may mar the forthcoming general elections and that the people’s wish for a seamless handover of power in 2023 could be a mirage after all.
For instance, a former governor of the old Anambra State, Dr Chukwuemeka Ezeife, was recently quoted in the media to have said, “I don’t think we can sustain this kind of insecurity for more than a few months.”
“As it is now, elections may be difficult to conduct in this kind of atmosphere of insecurity. We need to pray and appeal to the conscience of everybody to think about Nigeria,” Ezeife reportedly added.
Similarly, a former Minister of Transport, Ebenezer Babatope, was also quoted to have said, “The current security situation is grave and baffling.”
A Peoples Democratic Party chieftain, Buba Galadima, reportedly said, “It is going to be extremely dangerous for every living Nigerian because these people who have not performed will try to divide us further and install their own puppet, who will close their back.”
Speaking with our correspondent on the issue, a security expert, who is a former director of the Department of State Services, Mike Ejiofor, said, “There must be peace to achieve any political development.”
He said, “It is not as if elections will not hold in 2023 but any election held under this current atmosphere, when there are agitations everywhere, will not produce any credible outcome. It is not just about holding the elections. They must be held in a peaceful atmosphere to produce a credible outcome.
“You will recall that there was an election in the South-East in 2019 despite the IPOB’s (Indigenous People of Biafra) threat to disrupt the polls in Anambra State and the South-East zone in general.
Then, they were not attacking police stations but now there are attacks on security and military formations and correctional centres and we are going to conduct elections.
“Which one will the security forces be facing during the period of elections? Is it the conduct of the polls or maintaining peace and security within the area? We currently have a multifaceted security challenge. That is why I am suggesting that the government should first of all tackle the issue of insecurity before the conduct of the elections. This is necessary because people would be afraid to go out and vote.”
Also, the Executive Director of Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre, Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, told our correspondent in an interview in Abuja that most Nigerians were currently focussing on the insecurity challenges facing the country at the moment and were thinking less of the 2023 polls.
He said, “In less than two years from now, the presidential elections in Nigeria will take place but that has not been the major headline from the country’s election management body, considering that the country is totally distracted as a result of other pressing issues that bother on human security.
“Since the security of persons and electoral materials are also very germane, it bothers everyone on how to navigate rural communities without facing the venom of criminals who have now taken over territories and are reigning with mayhem.”
Rafsanjani noted that the polity was initially charged with hordes of presidential contenders and pretenders criss-crossing the length and the breadth of the country strategising, aligning and realigning.
He said there had been posturing among the six geopolitical zones over which region should produce the next president.
Rafsanjani lamented that the anticipation of the polls had been doused by recurring gunmen attacks.
He said, “For instance, On Monday, April 19, 2021, at least two policemen died when suspected hoodlums razed Zone 13 police headquarters in Ukpo, Anambra state.
“On April 18, 2021, about three persons were shot dead by unknown gunmen in Awka, Anambra State while in March 2021, lawyers in Anambra took to the streets to protest the worsening security situation.”
He said, “There have been attacks and abductions of students from various tertiary institutions in Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, Zamfara and other parts of the country.
“As the elections draw close, the proliferation of gunmen violence leaves much to be desired. Recent gunmen attacks across the country have mostly targeted police posts and checkpoints, razing structures, security vehicles, freeing detained suspects and harming police officers.
“The Nigeria Police Force is expected to maintain law and order during the polls but the new wave of insecurity indicates that they are the targets of yet-to-be-identified gunmen.
“The Nigerian government must secure the country from the rising violence because the security agents are now the main targets of gunmen attacks.
“Series of strikes on police commands have presented the police force as vulnerable, and it may even lead to an increase in self-defence groups since the custodians of law and order have themselves become victims of terror. Therefore, security reinforcements are needed in all security formations across the country.”
He counselled the Nigeria Police Force to put in adequate measures to secure its personnel and ensure that the menacing gunmen do not loot their armoury.
He said, “Reports of attacks on police stations have indicated the looting of arms. As the elections draw near, looted arms and ammunition add to the proliferation of small arms and light weapons may be used to disrupt the polls.
“Ahead of 2023, there are fears in the polity. Currently, no zone of the country is immune to insecurity. Recently, suspected herdsmen killed no fewer than 60 people in Ebonyi State.
“Currently, Imo and Abia are in tension over attacks on police stations and commands by hoodlums. This is a call for national concerns and the need for an urgent consensus to stem the tide of this ugly and unhealthy development.”
However, the General Secretary of the Campaign for Democracy, Rev Ifeanyi Odili, in an interview with our correspondent, expressed fears that some politicians could use the current situation to manipulate more votes for their parties in the 2023 polls.
He said, “Politicians are funny people. Experiences have shown that politicians have a way of manoeuvring such situations, more so, that they, the politicians occasioned the insecurity across Nigeria.
“They know how to circumvent the situation for them to have an easy election. One is in a dilemma that close to a million votes cast were recorded in the North-East, the epicentre of the Boko Haram insurgency, where people were massacred on a daily basis during the last presidential election.
“Whatever insecurity challenges that we are experiencing now cannot and will not deter them from conducting elections in 2023. By then, you will see them putting every dichotomy, grouse, malice, rebellion behind them and form themselves into a formidable group for the purpose of that election.
“Insecurity in Nigeria is the handiwork of our political marauders, irresponsible fellows, a marauding gang of thieves, and enemies of Nigerians roaming around the seat of power. Since they are the ones who are responsible for the insecurity, they also know how to temporarily withdraw and relaunch their attack and evil after elections.
“We should not be carried away. Some wicked souls, foxes and brutes are feeding fat on this insecurity at the expense of our lives. Despite security challenges in the North, millions of votes were also recorded in Kano State.
“Insecurity has nothing to do with elections within the context of Nigeria because politicians are the ones who brought all the evils upon Nigeria.
“Mark my words, insecurity will cease to be, the moment election is around the corner. The politicians would call for a ceasefire after creating fears in the minds of the electorate. They will nevertheless, resurface after the exercise, to wreak more havoc.”
A security expert, Ben Okezie, in his contribution said, “The current insecurity is a threat to the 2023 elections because the Police is demoralized and this has to be seriously looked into. They have been stigmatised and the personnel have been made to believe that they cannot give Nigerians, the needed security.
“This stems out of the problems of picking those who are not competent to handle the situation.
“The President of Chad who has been providing a shield has been killed and we are likely going to see a situation whereby bandits from Libya, Chad and Niger.
“They will soon be finding their ways into Nigeria. They will be difficult to differentiate because they speak the same language with their brothers in Nigeria.
Also, with the high rate of poverty, unemployment and other vices, it is becoming difficult to curb criminality. The governors are busy packing money for the 2023 elections.
“Politicians, would start spending money next year to woo people that would vote for them. There are already arms all over the places and they will find their ways into the hands of thugs.”