Nigeria’s daily crude oil production has once again fallen below the quota allocated by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that crude oil output declined to approximately 1.47 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February, down from 1.54 mbpd recorded in January.

With Nigeria’s OPEC quota set at 1.5 mbpd, the latest figures indicate a shortfall of about 70,000 barrels per day equivalent to approximately 2.1 million barrels over the month.

In January, the country briefly exceeded its OPEC allocation by more than 30,000 barrels per day, earning praise from industry stakeholders who saw it as a positive step toward achieving the government’s ambitious 2.06 mbpd production target.

However, this progress was reversed in February, with the latest NUPRC data revealing a daily production loss of around 70,000 barrels compared to the previous month.

Additionally, total oil production including crude and condensate fell from 1.78 mbpd in January to 1.67 mbpd in February.

The NUPRC stated, “Lowest and peak production in February were 1.60 million bopd and 1.76 million bopd respectively. The daily average production in February was 1,671,953 barrels per day, comprising both crude oil (1,465,006 bopd) and condensate (206,948 bopd). The average crude oil production was 98 per cent of OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd).”

Nigeria has struggled to meet its OPEC crude oil production quota in recent years, falling short in 2022, 2023, and 2024.

However, the country had started 2025 on a positive note, with production rising from 1.4 mbpd in December 2024 to 1.5 mbpd in January before the latest decline.

Crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism have been identified as key factors preventing Nigeria from meeting its OPEC oil production quotas over the years.

Despite these challenges, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, remains optimistic that Nigeria can achieve a production level of 3 million barrels per day (mbpd) this year.

He emphasized the government’s commitment to increasing output, stating that Nigeria would adopt the “Drill, baby drill” approach, a slogan popularized by former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Lokpobiri clarified that the 3mbpd target includes both crude oil and condensates, assuring that the country would scale up production without violating OPEC regulations.

Following the increase in crude output recorded in January, the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, noted that Nigeria should be producing up to four million barrels per day, given its hydrocarbon reserves.

He explained that OPEC members believe Nigeria has the potential to exceed its current 1.5mbpd quota but must demonstrate its capacity to sustain higher production levels.

“I think the important thing we should understand is that with Nigeria’s reserves and resources, it doesn’t have any business being below two million barrels a day. Nigeria should be doing two and a half, three, or four million barrels a day with its resource base. And I believe we can do it. And I do believe that even those in OPEC and around the world believe that, but we have to demonstrate that we can actually produce that,” he said.

He further stated that increasing production to 1.7mbpd in January was a significant step in proving Nigeria’s potential.

“What happened in January is a major demonstration. The country demonstrated that it can deliver above 1.5mbpd. I think that’s the beginning of giving confidence that we can get more quotas,” he added.

However, the latest production data from the regulator indicates a setback in February.

The 2025 budget is based on a production target of 2.06mbpd, and failure to meet this goal could impact projected oil revenue.

Additionally, the decline in crude oil production may pose a risk to local refineries, potentially leading to feedstock shortages.

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